Do you hear that sound? The echoing click of voters furiously submitting their ballots? Welcome to the long weekend of Oscar voting, which as always has created a kind of collective thrill—and panic—around Los Angeles. This is it: This season’s truncated period of aggressive campaigning, in which actors got to glad-handing work two months ago after the SAG-AFTRA strike finally ended, is reaching its apex, as is Academy members’ catch-up screening series, as they try to see as much as possible before making their votes. (You’ve got until Tuesday night!) Over the flurry of events in Hollywood this past week, the sentiment has stayed upbeat if also, inevitably, somewhat fatigued. There’s a sense among studios and strategists that the competition this year is fiercer than ever.
I’m David Canfield, and I’m writing this before I head out to the AFI Luncheon, a festive gathering of stars and creatives from what the American Film Institute has deemed the 10 best films and television programs of the year. On the movie side, the group tends to miss few if any eventual American best-picture Oscar nominees (international titles aren’t eligible), which means this gathering couldn’t be more crucially timed. Few will skip the event, since there’s been no reason for most folks to leave town at all: We had the Golden Globes on Sunday, the Governors Awards on Tuesday, and for a quick detour to New York, the National Board of Review gala on Thursday; the BAFTA Tea Party is coming up tomorrow, then the Critics Choice Awards on Sunday. And what’s that, you hadn’t heard about our first-ever Little Gold Men live coming up on Tuesday, featuring Lily Gladstone and others from Killers of the Flower Moon? Now there’s a way to celebrate the end of phase one!
Conventional wisdom around town has built toward Oppenheimer looking just about unstoppable right now, and I tend to agree. The Christopher Nolan box office phenomenon won five Globes, including the big one, and appears poised to do the same with Critics Choice on Sunday. The Screen Actors Guild Award nominations affirmed that Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon are likely the film’s top challengers—again, as has been the case all season—with the acting love going toward The Holdovers keeping hope alive for Focus’s Alexander Payne period piece. (The film won two Globes and could take home two acting Oscars for Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph.) The conversation right now, though, is around who will make it through to that top 10—and who won’t. Warner Bros. was thrilled to see SAG keep hope alive for The Color Purple; Netflix remains hopeful the critical love around May December is enough to give it a fighting chance after some tough snubs.
One always gets the sense around this time that the lists have narrowed considerably, that there are only a few alternatives left when it comes to surprise nominees, and indeed that typically pans out. But let us not forget the case of Andrea Riseborough last year, by which I mean, I hope certain voters at least learned from that controversy that it’s okay to look outside the box. Ava DuVernay has been candidly discussing this on the trail for her well-received but underseen indie epic, Origin—you can check out my chat with the film’s star, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, about just that—and she’s hardly alone in feeling that frustration. But change is possible here. A few years ago, it would’ve been unfathomable for three non-English-lanuage films to get nominated for best picture in the same cycle, but there is a good chance—between Past Lives, Anatomy of a Fall, and The Zone of Interest—that just that will happen in 2024.
So to any voters reading this and still undecided on a few races: Keep imagining. Keep pushing the Oscars forward. I’ve had studio heads and Oscar-winning actors and top strategists alike comment to me over the past few weeks about just how strong this year is in terms of the quality of competition. You might not know it by the uniformity of predictions lists coming out this week. So the best way to showcase that? Go with your heart, and see what happens. Happy voting.
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