Before Shōgun was renewed—and moved out of the Emmys’ limited-series categories—your guess for which drama would come out on top this year was as good as mine. Netflix’s 2021 champ, The Crown, felt like the de facto front-runner despite the muted response to its final season. Amazon’s Fallout was coming on (very) strong, with spectacular audience numbers and solid reviews, but still seemed to lean a little too genre to go all the way with the TV Academy. Starry series like The Morning Show and The Gilded Age had been around for several seasons without being nominated for the best-drama Emmy, so for those likely contenders, it was still one step at a time.
But all of this gaming-out may now be moot. I’m David Canfield, and with FX’s announcement that more Shōgun is in development, a clear front-runner has settled in. The feudal-Japan-set epic was a ratings smash for FX, charting on Nielsen for months as episodes rolled out weekly on Hulu, and it remains the most critically acclaimed new show of the year. That’s a rare, potent combination, especially given that most of the show’s dialogue is in Japanese and many of its cast members have yet to experience any US awards success. That will soon change.
Shōgun’s positioning also reflects an unusual change of pace in the race for best drama. Only one show in the past decade has won that award for its first season: Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale, whose timing in the early days of the Trump era gave it a leg up. Otherwise, this category has been dominated by the likes of Game of Thrones, Succession, and The Crown—though none of those shows went all the way for season one. Shōgun’s front-runner status speaks to just how resoundingly it landed—and, perhaps, just how eager the industry is to anoint a successor for its most coveted trophy.
Anything can still happen—but Shōgun’s impact will likely extend to every drama-category acting race too. The main theme: Can its brilliant, Japanese-speaking cast outpace heavyweights from the US, Britain, and Ireland? Hollywood icon Hiroyuki Sanada has a compelling career narrative to ride, with movie stars Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) and Colin Farrell (Sugar) also circling lead actor. Anna Sawai is on the opposite end of the spectrum, a true discovery crashing a field led by such massive names as Emma Stone (The Curse), Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show), and Imelda Staunton(The Crown). Such is the way of Shōgun this spring, though: Underestimate this phenomenon at your own peril.
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