It’s become an annual tradition for our Awards Insider special issue (now in the mailboxes of awards voters!) to put our chief critic, Richard Lawson, through a bit of a trial. Is it possible, given magazine deadlines, to write an essay in October that accurately captures where the best-picture race is headed, but accounts for any surprises that may emerge before the issue is actually published? For the past few years he’s been up to the task, and this year is no exception, as you can read for yourself.
Of course, this year the best-picture tea leaves became clear a little earlier than usual, with Barbie and Oppenheimercreating such a cultural tidal wave that it was impossible to imagine the Oscars leaving them out. But back in July most of us were certainly allowing for the possibility that big fall releases—Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon,Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things, Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers—would create their own awards season tidal waves that would make Barbenheimer feel less fresh. As Rebecca Ford pointed out in this newsletter last week, however, both films have been back in force on the campaign circuit since the actors strike ended, guaranteeing that Barbenheimer summer has become Barbenheimer winter…and maybe, once the Oscars arrive, Barbenheimer spring too.
The best-picture race wasn’t the only trend we were keeping an eye on in this year’s Awards Insider issue. Rebecca also captured the fascinating micro-trend of smoking onscreen, in both period pieces—Oppenheimer and Maestro are eternally draped in cigarette smoke—and in the modern drama All of Us Strangers. And Natalie Jarvey summed up the impact of the strike-struck awards season, talking to one awards strategist before the actors strike ended who admitted that, at that point, the best strategy was “lighting the white sage” and hoping it would end.
As the past few weeks have demonstrated, the campaign trail really did bounce right back—and we imagine there are more than a few contenders eager for the upcoming holiday break, where they can finally put away their formalwear for at least a few days. It won’t last long—the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, as just one example, are on January 3—so make it count, everybody.
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