19 December, 2023

Carl Nasman Washington DC Hello and welcome to the last edition of Future Earth in 2023. At the end of nearly two weeks of bold words, breakthroughs, controversies, backtracking, all-nighters and hotly contested semantics, COP28 has given us a new deal to guide international action on climate change. The big question a week later: is this a good or a bad deal for the climate? As we'll see, the short answer is "both". Plus, we meet scientists flying across Europe in ultra-light aircraft to bring rare birds to safety, and embark on an experiment on how best to eat local food on a budget. We'll be back in your inbox on 9 January and are looking forward to bringing you all the latest on how the world is tackling climate change in the new year. CLIMATE CONVERSATION The real impact of COP28 on the climate A standing ovation at the culmination of COP28 in Dubai. But how much difference will it really make? (Credit: Getty Images) After more than two weeks of intense negotiations, a deal at the UN's CO28 climate summit in Dubai was approved in just minutes. And I was caught off guard.   I was live on the air as COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber slammed down his gavel. It happened so fast that for a moment, I struggled to confirm it was really done.   Now, nearly a week after the summit ended with a standing ovation, the world is taking stock of the Global Stocktake, the summit's final text, which is already becoming known as the UAE Consensus.   Can a COP climate agreement be both good for the climate and bad? Both historic and disappointing? Many people tell me, yes. Defying expectations You might remember, before the summit began, there was a real sense that nothing would be achieved at all. This was a COP hosted by petrostate, helmed by an oil CEO and surrounded by controversy.   Instead, real progress was made, such as launching a long-fought-for loss and damage fund for developing nations. More than two weeks of negotiations also led to a final agreement calling – for the first time – for a transition away from fossil fuels. Delegates at the COP28 summit share a brief moment of relief as the talks progress. (Credit: BBC) Just like nearly every deal at UN climate conferences, this one doesn't deliver everything that was wanted. More than 100 countries had supported a complete "phase out" of fossil fuels, but the language was softened to "transition away" from using fossil fuels for energy, but does not mention their use in plastics, transport or agriculture.   But given the context, the agreement – which was adopted by 197 countries and the European Union – is being seen as at least a partial win. And the signal it sends – on the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age – is historic.   As Germany's climate envoy, Jennifer Morgan, told me just after the deal passed: "You would have to be a very bad listener... to miss the signal that the future is renewables. From my perspective [it] is quite clear and can't be ignored." Not all good news But not everyone is happy. Developing nations are concerned the deal doesn't go far enough. The final text is filled with loopholes, weak language and some apparent concessions to fossil fuel proponents.   As Samoan climate activist Brianna Fruean told me in Dubai, celebrating this deal would be like "celebrating flowers that will lie on our grave". It is strong, emotive language, but reflects the feelings of many from small nations already bearing the brunt of climate change.   And although the agreement sends a historic message, climate campaigner Drue Slater, from Fiji, told me: "The time for signalling is long past." It's all about implementation So what comes next? As al-Jaber himself said, "an agreement is only as good as its implementation". During his final speech, he cautioned: "We are what we do, not what we say."   Will nations follow through on key parts of the deal, like tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency by the end of the decade? If so, the International Energy Agency says the world will creep about a third closer to meeting its climate goals.   More crucially, will countries actually start ditching fossil fuels? I confronted ministers from the UK and New Zealand about planned expansions of oil and gas operations. Both told me the COP28 deal won't change their course of action.   But my lasting image of COP28 will be one of hope: two delegates hugging as the deal was announced. An emotional end to a gruelling two weeks.   As Catherine Abreu, the executive director of Destination Zero, explained to me in the closing hours of COP28, this marks a "turning point". We now have a road map for climate action. Now it's up to all of the countries that agreed the UAE Consensus to follow it. NUMBER OF THE WEEK $1 trillion The sum that developing nations are likely to need every year to adapt to climate change. Past 2025, the figure rises to $2.4tn a year. In addition to essential finance from rich, historically polluting countries, there's one underappreciated solution that could help their finances: swapping debt for climate action. TAKE A MOMENT The quiet climate wins you might have missed After a year of climate extremes, it's worth stepping back to take note of the quieter but hugely important breakthroughs for the climate and nature you may not have noticed in 2023. Read more CLIMATE QUIZ On the world's current trajectory, what will happen to the amount of coal we use annually by 2026? A. It's going to go up B. It's going to go down C. It's going to stay the same Scroll to the bottom of this newsletter for the answer. THE BIG PICTURE The scientists who fly with birds Bird foster-mothers fly in an ultra-light aircraft to lead a flock of bald ibises to safety. (Credit: Waldrappteam) The annual migration of bald ibises from their summer breeding grounds in the Alpine foothills of Austria and Germany to their wintering grounds in Spain is a challenging journey at the best of times, relying on thermals of warm air and dodging hungry eagles. But climate change has made the route even more perilous. A handful of intrepid scientists have come up with a solution to guide the bald ibis along a new, safer route. Meet the bird foster-mothers leading bald ibises migration in ultra-light aircraft, in a daredevil mission to keep the birds safe in a warming world. BEFORE YOU GO • In France, the largest natural deposit of hydrogen ever found was discovered earlier this year. Emma Woollacott asks whether these reserves could be tapped for zero-emission fuel. • Momentum is growing for green shipping corridors, international routes for ships run using zero or low-emission fuels – a welcome challenge to the 99% of international shipping run on oil-based fuels. • Through breeding programmes, injections and levies, New Zealand is proposing a range of ways to bring the methane-rich belches of its cattle and sheep in check. Tech Decoded Newsletter  Decode the biggest developments in global technology with a twice-weekly email.  Sign up here AND FINALLY... With the festive season in full swing, it's the time of year for joyful feasting. Celebrating local, seasonal food may be high on the menu for those wishing to bring climate goodwill to the table. But in our globalised world, is it really possible to eat locally? In Los Angeles and in London, two of our writers put their immediate environs to the test, in a week-long experiment to eat locally and sustainably on a budget. For the intriguing results and some helpful takeaways (pun intended), see how the local food experiment played out. The answer to today's quiz is B: the amount of coal the world will use is set to decline by 2026, driven by growth in renewable energy, according to a report by the International Energy Agency. But a sharper decline is needed to get the world on track for limiting global warming to 1.5C by the end of the century.