THE LATEST ON HOLLYWOOD'S BIGGEST RACES
DECEMBER 17, 2021
So Many Awards, So Little Time
We’ve had so many awards nominations this week, you’re forgiven for forgetting that Oscar nominations are still about…two months away. What? Just me? Okay, got it.
I’m David Canfield, and Monday’s doubleheader of Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards nominations provided me with an early, telling snapshot of some major categories. Yes, even though the Globes’ stature is, erm, diminished this season, and Critics Choice tends to be less curative with their nomination fields (as many as eight actors have been nominated in single categories recently), they tend to be fairly predictive of the Oscars. In fact, as far as Critics Choice goes, because their lists are larger, it’s rare that they miss more than one or two eventual acting Oscar nominees. It’s a strong track record.
Neither of these groups—nor the many regional critics’ groups that voted this week—have overlap with the Academy in terms of membership. So why do they get things right? Especially with the CCAs, there’s something to be said for consensus coming from a big, diverse body of voters who’ve screened as much as possible. So we bear good news for preestablished season leaders The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, King Richard, Belfast, West Side Story, and Dune—all fared as well or better than expected—and even better news for the fast-rising CODA, an August release getting a second (third?) wind, and Nightmare Alley, the ambitious noir from Guillermo Del Toro that was unveiled last of all 2021 contenders, but is making its way.
For those missing out on these key precursor short lists, passion is needed to stay in the hunt. Which brings us to the small critics’ awards. They don’t always mean much, but a win is a win. The New York Film Critics Circle kicked off December with a huge embrace of The Power of the Dog, as well as key wins for surging international film Drive My Car and House of Gucci’s Lady Gaga. And among the many cities who’ve since named their favorites, new trend lines are emerging. This is especially good for certain players who missed with Critics Choice: Ruth Negga, Passing’s scene-stealer who won with Chicago and Philadelphia; Drive My Car, building on that New York momentum with another best-picture pickup in Boston (not to mention actor, director, and screenplay); and Jessie Buckley, another Boston winner for The Lost Daughter. (She and Negga also picked up supporting-actress Spirit Award noms this week.)
Gaga has lost most subsequent best-actress critics’ prizes to Spencer’s Kristen Stewart, now a certified champ from coast to coast (specifically, from Phoenix to Chicago to Atlanta to Washington, D.C.), while Benedict Cumberbatch has continued to dominate coming off that NYFCC triumph. He’s now a clear challenger to Will Smith, who’s mostly sat these smaller awards out. (No immediate alarm needed, though—King Richard is a broader play.) And over in director, Jane Campion is pulling off the kind of near-complete sweep that we saw Chloé Zhao manage last year for Nomadland. (We know how that turned out.) The late-breaking Steven Spielberg, though, has made himself known as a rival with wins in New Mexico and Las Vegas.
Are these your eventual winners? It’s hardly so simple. But as the field narrows and front-runners make themselves known, we’re getting new pieces of the puzzle every day—some of which continue to tell us what we already know, and others that preserve hope for a few fading but incredibly deserving candidates.
All of which is to say, no group is the end-all, be-all. But if you’ve got a contender who’s yet to show up anywhere, it’s time to step on the gas.
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