The first thing I asked as I geared up to moderate a Q&A this past week for The Holdovers, before a full audience of Academy members, was just how many in attendance were seeing the movie for a second, third, maybe fourth time. Nearly every hand shot up. One woman in the front yelled, “My sixth!” As director Alexander Payne and nominees Paul Giamatti (best actor), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (supporting actress), and producer Mark Johnson (best picture) then took the stage one by one, you got the sense that, for this crowd anyway, you were seeing a group of rock stars on the last leg of a tour.
I’m David Canfield, and having done this for a few years now, I can confirm that this image defines phase-two campaigning in a nutshell. The movies, in an ideal world, have been seen by most every voter. (Not really, though: No movie—not even the billion-dollar-grossing Barbie—has been seen by every Academy member.) The talent have been out and about, from coast to coast, picking up awards and nominations and meeting different corners of the industry. Screenings and panels are still popping up all over town, but unless you’ve got a particularly beloved contender, or your methods are turning a bit more innovative (more on that in a moment), it gets harder to fill a room. A few contenders I spoke with this past week also admitted to just being a bit, well, tired—if still on a high from the embrace of their work.
So it’s especially worth paying attention to what is still managing to resonate and gin up excitement right now. I bring up The Holdovers because that film, with the potential to win two acting Oscars based on precursors, clearly has passion in its corner. Barbie, as my colleagues and I discussed on Little Gold Men this past week, seems to be riding an improbable and resonant underdog narrative, following its tumultuous showing on nominations morning. And then there’s Anatomy of a Fall—a French moral thriller that, against all odds, is getting talked about more than any other best-picture nominee right now.
Surely you’ve heard over the past few days about the dog Messi’s superb performance at the Oscar nominees luncheon or at his own press event. (One would think he’s up for an award himself; alas, the Academy remains as dog-unfriendly as Chloë Sevigny.) But Neon also threw a smash, starry live-read event on Wednesday that my colleague Kara Warnerattended and Vanity Fair contributor Franklin Leonardparticipated in as a narrator. Writer-director Justine Triet(Oscar-nominated for both efforts) walked out onstage at the Wallis Annenberg Center in Beverly Hills to wild applause, and then in a surprise, brought out (again, Oscar-nominated) star Sandra Hüller who met a rapturous reception. Riley Keough, Bob Odenkirk, and more performed the script to great fanfare. Messi was also in attendance.
It sounds a little stunt-y, maybe, but this campaign is appropriately meeting a rapidly surging moment in its awards trajectory, one that makes you wonder how far it can go. Oppenheimer remains a very strong front-runner, of course. But at this Sunday’s BAFTAs, we’ll finally have an industry group of voters weighing in with a full slate of winners. The Holdovers and Anatomy are nominated for best film beside Oppenheimer, Poor Things—itself surging, with major box-office numbers and continued critical accolades—and Killers of the Flower Moon. Will any of them pop a bit more than expected? Certainly, in the phase-two game of keeping enthusiasm alive, they are hoping for just that.
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