The rapid rise of AI, growing geopolitical risk, and the fight against inflation have dominated the discourse about the markets in 2023.
It’s time to add the emergence of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy to the conversation. These drugs could lead millions of Americans to alter their diet and lifestyles in the years ahead, reshuffling huge amounts of spending in the process.
Research on the effects of these drugs has sent stock prices for kidney dialysis providers and CPAP manufacturers plunging. The same is true for companies that make insulin-delivery systems. Walmart has said it’s seen customers on the drugs pull back on spending on food.
There are obvious beneficiaries, too. Novo Nordisk, which makes Ozempic and Wegovy, is now Europe’s most valuable company. Insurers and pharmacy benefit managers could cash in. Doctors are rushing to get certified to treat obesity.
There are real questions over how these drugs will be paid for, with one Blackstone exec saying the cost of covering them to help people lose weight could put some companies out of business.
And the science is developing quickly, with another drug, Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, showing signs it could be more effective than Ozempic for weight loss. As with any medication, drugs won’t be the answer for everyone.
Still, it’s possible to picture a world where millions or even tens of millions are eating less, losing weight, and feeling differently about themselves. The impact that has on companies’ bottom lines and on the economy will be one of the big stories of the next decade.
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