September 24, 2023 • 5 min read with Matt Turner Hello! I’m the editor in chief of business at Insider. Welcome back to Insider Today’s Sunday edition, a roundup of the week’s top stories. On the agenda today: Why former Goldman Sachs partners say they left the firm. Prices are about to soar even higher — and it could trigger a recession. How the next hurricane or heat wave could devastate the economy. Insiders say Microsoft Windows' boss left for Amazon after cuts in his unit. But first: A window into an AI future for office workers. Plus: The IPO market is (kinda) back.

Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now

Macall B. Polay/HBO Dispatch ConsultantGPT When I think of white collar workers, I think first of consultants.   Armed with MBAs and case studies, these consultants parachute into the biggest companies in the world to find efficiencies, sharpen strategy, and justify tough decisions.   There’s been a lot of talk recently around how AI might impact these kinds of so-called knowledge workers. That’s why I was fascinated to see the results of a study that gave hundreds of consultants access to AI. The experiment involved 758 individual contributors at Boston Consulting Group. One group had no access to AI, and two groups were given access to GPT-4 with different approaches. The takeaways:   AI can be incredibly powerful. There were 18 consultant tasks where AI proved capable. Across these tasks, those using AI quite simply crushed it. They completed more tasks, completed their tasks more quickly, and the work was of a higher quality. AI can’t do everything. For tasks deemed to be “outside the frontier” of what AI is capable of, those using it were significantly more likely to make mistakes than those not using AI. AI benefits the lower performers most. Everyone using AI tools in the right places benefited, but it was the lower performers who did so most, allowing them to close the gap to their higher-performing peers. The study supports earlier research that’s found AI increases productivityoverall while elevating the less experienced and lower performers most.   The findings also hint at how AI might impact knowledge workers everywhere. After all, the management consultant advising your CEO might just have been a part of this study.   Also read: How a leading economist learned to start worrying and fear artificial intelligence The IPO market saw further signs of life last week as Instacart and Klaviyo went public.    Instacart’s IPO might trigger mixed feelings for founder Apoorva Mehta, even if it did make him a billionaire. See who else made money from the IPO. Insider also mapped out the Instacart mafia who’ve raised millions for their own startups since leaving.   Over at Klaviyo, founder Andrew Bialecki built the company into an email titan by breaking all the norms. The IPO confirmed his status as a billionaire, and bolstered the wealth of many other high-profile investors.    So is the famed IPO window now open?    Trading in Instacart, Klaviyo, and Arm, which went public a week earlier, has been solid rather than spectacular. As one VC told Insider, the IPO window is neither closed nor fully open.    Instead, it’s “half cracked to get some fresh air.”

Michael Kovac/Getty Images This week's top reads Why we left Goldman Sachs It’s one of the most prestigious jobs on Wall Street, but that hasn’t stopped people from walking away from the gig.   Making partner at Goldman Sachs is rarified air, with the group representing only 1% of the prestigious bank’s entire workforce. But Insider found at least 202 partners have left the firm during CEO David Solomon’s volatile five-year tenure. The bank, meanwhile, has pushed back on any whisper of a partner exodus.   Former partners detailed what led them to leave the high-profile role, with some pointing to the strategic missteps by Solomon.    More from ex-Goldman Sachs partners on why they left.    Also read: Wall Street's hottest career move: the volatile, lucrative world of private credit

Liam Eisenberg for Insider The greased-pig economy The Federal Reserve’s attempt to get inflation under control is the equivalent of trying to catch a greased pig: Even when you think you have it in your grasp, it can still slip away.    And the longer the battle to tame inflation goes, the higher the risks are. The Fed is eyeing a soft landing whereby it addresses inflation while avoiding a recession. But if rate hikes persist, that becomes harder to navigate.   American consumers have proved to be resilient in their spending, but that won’t last forever.    How things could get ugly if we lose a grip on inflation.   Also read:  Billionaire investor Bill Ackman says the Fed's fight against inflation may never end due to strikes and soaring gas prices   The inflation threat isn't over yet – and the Fed won't ease up in fighting it overnight, the co-chief investor of the world's largest hedge fund says

AP The hidden cost of extreme weather It’s undeniable that destruction from extreme weather events like Hurricane Idalia is pricey, but try $2,615,000,000,000. That’s the total tab for the 371 extreme weather events in the US since 1980 that topped $1 billion in damage.   And the jarring figure doesn’t even include the mental and physical trauma people faced with these events endure    The hidden costs of these disasters also trickles down to all of us in the form of higher insurance premiums or taxes.   More on the true cost of extreme weather.

Panos Panay Microsoft Microsoft vet walks away A longtime Microsoft vet is leaving for rival Amazon amid big changes to his unit.    Panos Panay, the tech giant’s chief product officer and a 20-year vet of the company, made a surprise exit. Panay is a creator of the company’s Surface line of laptops and tablets, and is the biggest name to switch between the two companies since Charlie Bell jumped to Microsoft.   Insiders pointed to changes in the Windows+ Devices division he oversaw, including budget and staff cuts and canceled products.    More on Panos Panay’s departure from Microsoft.   Also read: Amazon employees slam its Clubhouse-competing app in internal meeting following abrupt leadership change: 'This place is becoming a circus'

This week's quote “Even though I'm making less money, I'm happier now than ever, and that's worth it.” — Akeem Caballero, who left a nearly six-figure corporate job to work at Trader Joe's for $17 an hour.

More of this week’s top reads: Rupert Murdoch completes the real-life 'Succession' story. Here's how his son Lachlan rose to the top. This is the Apple-Disney deal that could actually happen. Remember when NFTs sold for millions? 95% of them may now be worthless. America's biggest private-equity firms are screwing over college students. The 21 cities where Gen Z homebuyers are moving in next door. Hybrid work might not be the dream scenario for all workers. Your Fitbit and Apple Watch may wind up hurting you.

Event invite America is grappling with a growing childcare crisis. Join us on September 27 at 3 p.m. ET for a panel discussion about the challenges posed by this pressing issue, paired with actionable insights and potential solutions. Save the date here.

The Insider Today Sunday team Matt Turner, editor in chief of business, in New York City. Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor, in New York City. Diamond Naga Siu, senior reporter, in San Diego. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York City.