View in browser   PRESENTED BY BP   Axios AM By Mike Allen · Dec 18, 2023 🛷 Happy Monday, on the luge to Christmas Eve (Sunday)!  Smart Brevity™ count: 1,589 words ... 6 mins. Thanks to Erica Pandey for orchestrating. Edited by Emma Loop and Bryan McBournie.     1 big thing — Behind the Curtain: Trumpy Congress Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   If former President Trump wins next year, he'd have much greater power than in his first term — and fewer restraints on carrying out his political agenda. That's thanks to the trifecta of a more compliant cabinet, government workforce — and Congress, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write. Why it matters: We've shown how Trump would stack his cabinetand government with pre-vetted loyalists. This column is about the third reason he'd be able to move faster to punish enemies and impose his policies: very Trumpy congressional Republicans. What's happening: Trump, if he wins, will enjoy vigorous backing from the vast majority of GOP leaders and rank-and-file Republicans.  Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is 81, has frozen twice on camera, and is loathed by Trump. McConnell has said he'll finish his term as leader, which ends after next year. Then he'll be under pressure to step aside — although he says he'll finish his Senate term, which ends after '26.  McConnell's replacement is certain to be more aligned with Trump — and less likely to challenge him the way McConnell has (mostly in private). The intrigue: We've learned that House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has held the gavel for seven weeks, talks regularly with Trump.  Johnson, who could remain party leader even if Republicans lose the House (although based on precedent, his fellow Louisianan, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, might get the job), will be more of a Trump enabler than former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Yes, McCarthy sucked up to Trump in public. But he also has been known to roll his eyes privately. Pro-Trump forces have the power to oust Johnson or any leader who doesn't do Trump's bidding. Under the GOP's current rules, all it takes is one Republican to force a vote on removing the speaker. Assuming margins similar to those in the current House, as few as five Republicans could join with all Democrats to oust him. Most of the likely House GOP leaders — including committee chairs or ranking members, depending on whether Republicans keep the majority — are vocal Trump supporters. When Trump took office in 2017, he was dependent on former Speaker Paul Ryan, whose disdain for the president was obvious. Finally, Trump will benefit greatly from the absence of several of his biggest critics — most notably Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, who's retiring after '24, and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who lost her primary while repeatedly confronting Trump. McCarthy, who's leaving the House at the end of this month, said in an interview that when Trump first came to Washington, "he didn't know the office, and he didn't know the Hill." "Trump is stronger today politically," McCarthy told us. "He knows the members personally — who can make things happen, who can deliver." Who's who: Trump's enforcer would be House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan of Ohio, who talks often with the former president. Three other House members whose stock would rise: Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, who turned heads in Trumpland with her devastating questioning of the college presidents; Rep. Gary Palmerof Alabama, who's working with Trump's campaign on energy policy; and Rep. Max Miller of Ohio, an aide in Trump's White House. A trio of GOP senators who'd have a ton of juice with Trump: Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, who's such a favorite he could go into the administration; Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, the current member of Senate leadership with whom Trump has the best relationship; and Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, a confidant when Trump was in the White House. Read our full column.         2. 🛬 Southwest fined for Christmas meltdown Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Out at 5 a.m.: The Transportation Department fined Southwest Airlines $140 million over last year's disastrous winter meltdown that left nearly 17,000 holiday flights canceled and over 2 million passengers stranded. Why it matters: Agency officials say the penalty — 30 times larger than any previous similar fine — sends a strong message to all airlines to up their customer service game, Axios' Joann Muller reports. 💵 As part of the penalty, Southwest must set aside $90 million in vouchers for passengers affected by future delays and cancellations. "In the event Southwest causes a passenger to arrive at their destination three hours or more after their original scheduled arrival time due to an issue within Southwest's control," DOT says, "Southwest is required to provide the passenger with a transferable $75 voucher for future use on the airline." Go deeper.         3. 🔎 CIA joins Gaza hostage talks Israeli soldiers show journalists an iron-girded tunnel near Erez Crossing in the northern Gaza Strip, near the Israeli border, on Friday. Photo: Ariel Schalit/AP CIA director Bill Burns will meet today in Warsaw with the prime minister of Qatar and the head of the Israeli Mossad spy agency to discuss a potential new deal to secure the release of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza, U.S. and Israeli officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Why it matters: Burns played a key role in brokering the previous deal that led to the release of more than 100 hostages, including several Americans. Israeli officials say Burns' continued involvement in this issue is of critical importance to the chances of getting a new deal. What to watch: Israeli officials say they expect this round of negotiations to be much more difficult than the previous one because of the need to put much more pressure on Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' leader in Gaza. Several Hamas officials recently said that the terror group will only relaunch negotiations after Israel stops its military operation in Gaza. 💨 Catch up quick: The IDF announced that three Israeli hostages were mistakenly killed in Gaza by IDF soldiers.  The incident is putting further pressure on Israel to come to an agreement with Hamas to release the more than 130 hostages still held in Gaza. Share this story.         A MESSAGE FROM BP Biogas or natural gas? One top energy investor is doing both     bp added more than $70 billion to the U.S. economy last year. We did it by making investments from coast to coast — like acquiring America’s largest biogas producer, Archaea Energy, and producing natural gas with fewer emissions in the Permian Basin. See how else bp is investing in America.     4. 📷 Biden unhurt as motorcade hit  Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images Members of the Secret Service rush toward a sedan last night after it plowed into a parked motorcade SUV — just as President Biden left his campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Del., along with First Lady Jill Biden. The Bidens were unhurt.  The SUV was being used to close off intersections for the president's departure. The sedan tried to drive through a closed-off intersection. Secret Service personnel surrounded the vehicle with weapons drawn and instructed the driver to put his hands up, AP reports. Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Above: Biden hears a loud bang as a car hits his motorcade. Biden paused and looked over toward the sound, surprised, before he was ushered into the vehicle, where his wife was already seated, before being driven swiftly back to their home.  More pics.         5. 🚨 NEW: Americans flee flood zones Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   Climate migration is already taking place in the U.S. as people flee areas prone to flooding, Axios' Andrew Freedman writes from First Street Foundation research, out this morning. Why it matters: Population shifts, and a larger reckoning for real estate, are expected to worsen as global average surface temperatures rise. 🖼️ The big picture: At a macro level, Americans are leaving the Rust Belt in droves and heading to areas of greater climate risk in the South and Southwest, said Jeremy Porter, a study co-author and head of climate change implications for First Street Foundation. But at a micro level — the study zooms into the census-block level — people are moving away from areas vulnerable to coastal flooding. 📈 Stunning stat: From 2000 to 2020, about 818,000 census blocks experienced flood-related population declines. Go deeper.         6. 🗳️ Scoop: Crypto's '24 war chest Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios   Cryptocurrency industry leaders have poured $78 million into bolstering the ranks of crypto-friendly lawmakers on Capitol Hill, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. The fundraising groups are crypto-focused super PAC Fairshake, along with affiliated PACs Protect Progress and Defend American Jobs. Why it matters: The immense figure — raised in just three months, with nearly a year to go before Election Day — puts crypto on track to rival more established industries in political giving. The money comes from a coalition of crypto companies, executives and investors, including Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz and the Winklevoss twins. The sum represents a collective effort to detoxify crypto's image in the campaign fundraising world after the fall of FTX founder and prolific political donor Sam Bankman-Fried. 👀 What to watch: Donations will go to congressional candidates in both parties who are "pro-innovation, pro-responsible regulation, pro-crypto, pro-blockchain technology," an operative told Axios. Read on.         7. 👀 Power watch: New firm for McCarthy chief The Capitol at sunrise. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite/AP Machalagh Carr, former chief of staff to Speaker Kevin McCarthy, tells me she's launching a boutique consulting shop, Quell Strategies. Why it matters: Her first big project will be to partner with former Attorney General Bill Barr to lead the Center for Legal Action (CLA) at the budding American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce (AmFree). He's chairman of CLA and she'll be president. Carr, a lawyer, says her firm, based in Virginia, got its name because "quell" means "to calm a crisis, or put an end to disorder." Share this story.          8. ❄️ Mapped: White Christmas Data: Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals The best odds of a white Christmas are in the Mountain West, upper Midwest or northern New England. Historical satellite data show those are the regions that most often had at least an inch of snow on the ground — or actively falling on Christmas Day — between 2003 and 2022, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Erin Davis write. 💡 Reality check: Past performance is no guarantee of future results — especially as climate change shrinks the length of snow seasons. NOAA's outlook says winter will be warmer and drier than usual across the upper continental U.S. Share this story.         A MESSAGE FROM BP Developing more lower carbon energy and keeping oil & gas flowing     bp’s U.S. workforce — our largest in the world — is keeping oil and gas flowing with fewer operational emissions and developing more lower carbon energy. It’s our “and, not or” approach at work. See how doing both drives our investment in America.